特朗普50%进口铜关税搅动市场，纽铜、伦铜价差料将继续扩大

Core Viewpoint - The decision by President Trump to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper is shocking in both timing and scale, significantly impacting the copper market and global supply chain [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the tariff, COMEX copper prices surged by 17%, reaching historic highs, while LME copper prices experienced volatility, with a price range between $9,769.50 and $9,553.00 per ton [1][4]. - Analysts predict that the price differential between New York and London copper will continue to widen, potentially reaching 50% as U.S. importers rush to purchase copper ahead of the tariff implementation [5][6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Implications - The U.S. is heavily reliant on copper imports, with the U.S. Geological Survey estimating a consumption of 3.4 million tons in 2024, nearly half of which will be imported [1][2]. - The U.S. domestic copper production is only 1.1 million tons, a 3% decline year-on-year, which is minimal compared to the global production of 23 million tons [1][2]. Group 3: Long-term Industry Outlook - Analysts express concerns that the U.S. has underinvested in copper mining and refining for decades, making self-sufficiency nearly impossible in the short term [2]. - The International Energy Agency forecasts global copper demand to reach 26.7 million tons in 2024, with a 7% increase over the past three years and a projected 17% growth by 2030 [4]. Group 4: Economic Impact on U.S. Companies - U.S. companies are expected to bear the brunt of the tariff, leading to increased costs for copper, especially as the dollar has depreciated by approximately 15% this year [6][7]. - The uncertainty created by the tariff announcement has left many in the copper trading and production sectors confused, with potential negative implications for all domestic copper consumers [7].