Core Viewpoint - The energy sector is facing significant pessimism as major companies lower profit guidance due to declining oil and gas prices, with an overall profit decline expected to exceed 26% year-on-year, marking the largest drop in recent years [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - Major energy companies, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Shell, have revised their earnings forecasts downward, with the sector's overall earnings per share (EPS) expected to drop from $27.9 billion to $22.7 billion, a decrease of 18.8% [1] - The energy sector's profit expectations have shifted from a previous forecast of -8.4% in March to a current expectation of -25.6% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Subsector Performance - Among the five subsectors within the energy sector, four are projected to experience negative growth: Integrated Oil & Gas at -34%, Refining & Marketing at -31%, Exploration & Production at -20%, and Equipment & Services at -18% [1] - Only the Storage & Transportation subsector is expected to see positive growth, with profits anticipated to rise by 13% [1] Group 3: Revenue Declines - The energy sector is also experiencing the largest revenue declines among all 11 major sectors, with Refining & Marketing down 15%, Integrated Oil & Gas down 14%, and Equipment & Services down 7% [2] - Conversely, the Storage and Exploration & Production subsectors are expected to see revenue growth of 24% and 10%, respectively, indicating some resilience within certain segments [2] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Warnings - Several oil giants have issued profit warnings, with ExxonMobil forecasting a potential $1.5 billion drop in upstream earnings, Shell predicting a loss of $400-600 million, and Chevron lowering its Q2 EPS forecast from $2.53 to $1.76 [3] - The current energy market is characterized by a "double squeeze" on profits due to falling commodity prices and narrowing refining margins alongside rising operational costs [3] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain a cautious stance towards traditional oil and gas stocks, particularly those heavily reliant on upstream profits, while focusing on companies in storage, LNG, and those with clear renewable energy transition strategies [3] - Long-term monitoring of global macroeconomic policy changes, such as U.S. economic policies, OPEC+ meeting outcomes, and European energy regulations, is recommended [3]
HTFX外汇：能源板块Q2财报承压 利润预估大幅下调
He Xun Wang·2025-07-10 07:25