开源证券：BOPET膜国内产需高增 行业自律有望助力格局优化、盈利改善

Core Viewpoint - The BOPET industry has faced continuous profit pressure since 2022, leading to a slowdown in planned capacity and a potential decrease in actual implementation. However, industry self-discipline is expected to optimize the market structure and improve profitability. In the medium to long term, market resources are gradually concentrating on companies with cost and technological advantages, with a positive outlook on the rapid enhancement of domestic high-end polyester film product development, driving the BOPET industry towards high-end and green development [1][2]. Industry Overview - The BOPET film, known for its excellent performance, is widely used in packaging, printing, optical displays, electrical and electronic applications, and photovoltaic new energy sectors. From 2014 to 2024, the domestic BOPET industry has seen rapid growth in capacity and apparent consumption, but the consumption growth rate has not kept pace with capacity and production growth, leading to a structural imbalance characterized by an oversupply of low-end products and a shortage of high-end products [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply Side: From 2014 to 2024, domestic BOPET capacity expanded from 2.47 million tons to 6.95 million tons, with a CAGR of 10.9%. Production increased from 1.61 million tons to 4.59 million tons, with a CAGR of 11.0%. Currently, the industry capacity stands at 6.482 million tons per year, with the top 10 enterprises accounting for 63.0% of the total capacity [3][4]. - Demand Side: During the same period, domestic BOPET apparent consumption rose from 1.71 million tons to 4.15 million tons, with a CAGR of 9.3%. The growth rate of consumption has lagged behind that of capacity and production, exacerbating market oversupply. In 2024, the demand shares for packaging, protective films, solar back sheets, and optical films are projected to be 45.8%, 14.7%, 4.9%, and 10.2%, respectively [3][4]. Import and Export Trends - Since 2015, China has become a net exporter of BOPET, yet it still imports 200,000 to 300,000 tons annually, with the average import price being more than twice that of the export price, indicating a continued reliance on imported high-end BOPET products [3]. Price Trends - BOPET prices have followed the trend of crude oil prices, with the cost of slice method being slightly higher than that of direct melting method. The supply-demand imbalance has led to a decline in BOPET prices since 2022, reaching historical lows, and the industry is experiencing negative gross margins [4]. Company Performance - Most companies have seen a decline in profitability since 2022, with expectations of turning from profit to loss in 2023-2024. Profitability is still under pressure in Q1 2025, and capital expenditures and construction projects in the sector have been reduced since 2023 [4].