地产经纬丨宅地供应缩量，上海各区新房去化压力如何？

Core Insights - The high-end residential market in Shanghai has seen significant activity, with over 2,530 transactions of new homes priced above 30 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 61.6% of the national total [1] - Despite the strong performance of high-end projects, the overall new housing market in Shanghai is facing challenges, with some projects experiencing zero subscriptions and others transitioning from new to quasi-existing status [1] - As of July 10, 2023, the new housing inventory in Shanghai exceeded 60,000 units, indicating a static de-stocking cycle of 12 months, nearing the upper limit of a healthy de-stocking period [1] Inventory Analysis - The total new housing inventory in Shanghai is 60,208 units, covering an area of 731.57 million square meters, with 143,762 units of ordinary residential properties [2] - Inventory distribution varies significantly across districts, with Pudong New Area accounting for nearly 25% of the total inventory, while several districts like Jinshan, Jiading, Qingpu, and Fengxian also have inventories exceeding 5,000 units [3][4] - The outer ring of Shanghai holds 48,124 units, representing 79.9% of the total inventory, indicating a supply-demand imbalance in these areas [4][5] Market Dynamics - The oversupply of new homes in the outer ring is closely linked to the ongoing construction of five new towns, which have dominated land supply in recent years, contributing to a significant increase in new housing supply [5] - The land supply in these areas has started to decrease in 2024, with only 11 plots being released, accounting for 20% of the city's total, suggesting a shift in focus towards the central urban areas [5][6] - The supply of land in central districts like Yangpu, Xuhui, and Hongkou remains robust, primarily through redevelopment projects, while suburban areas are experiencing a decline in housing land supply [6]