小摩前瞻阿斯麦(ASML.US)二季报：符合共识预期即胜利

Core Viewpoint - ASML is set to announce its Q2 financial results on July 16, with significant order expectations creating uncertainty in stock performance. Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of €970 (approximately $1,137.71) [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Order Expectations - The market sentiment towards ASML's stock is bearish, with concerns over order uncertainty impacting short-term outlooks. However, Morgan Stanley believes mid-term risks are low due to a projected 7.7% revenue growth in 2026 compared to 2025 [1] - Current consensus for orders stands at €4.8 billion, reflecting a 22% increase from Q1, but the sustainability of this growth is contingent on TSMC receiving 2026 orders in the current quarter [1][2] - If TSMC receives all its 2026 orders in Q2, ASML is likely to exceed order expectations, as over 50% of TSMC's 2026 EUV orders are still pending [1] Group 2: Q2 Performance Expectations - Morgan Stanley forecasts ASML's Q2 revenue at €7.433 billion, a 4.0% decline quarter-over-quarter but a 19.1% increase year-over-year, slightly below market expectations [3] - The anticipated order amount for Q2 is €4.19 billion, which is 12.6% lower than market expectations, reflecting a conservative view on order predictability [3] - The estimated gross margin is 51.5%, aligning with market expectations, while EBIT is projected at €2.325 billion with a profit margin of 31.3%, slightly below market forecasts [3] - Earnings per share are expected to be €5.11, which is 2.7% lower than market expectations, and ASML is likely to narrow its 2025 revenue guidance to a midpoint of €30 billion to €35 billion [3]