“狼来了”不灵了？特朗普威胁对进口药品征收200%关税，国际投资者淡定

Group 1 - Market reaction to Trump's proposed 200% tariff on imported drugs has been minimal, with European pharmaceutical stocks showing little change [1] - Analysts suggest that investors view the tariff threat as mere rhetoric, with the perception that Trump often backs down from such proposals [1] - Capstone's analysis indicates that a 200% tariff could lead to significant drug shortages in the U.S., as brand-name manufacturers would face increased import costs and generic manufacturers might exit the market [1] Group 2 - Several pharmaceutical companies have announced large-scale investment plans in the U.S., including Novartis with $23 billion, Roche with $50 billion, Eli Lilly with $27 billion, and Johnson & Johnson with over $55 billion [3] - UBS analyst Matt Weston notes that the timeline of 18 months is insufficient for relocating manufacturing to the U.S., typically requiring 4-5 years for commercial-scale production [3] - European pharmaceutical companies are less likely to be affected by the tariffs, as many conduct at least the final manufacturing stages in the U.S. [3] Group 3 - Ireland is projected to be the largest exporter of pharmaceuticals to the U.S. in 2024, with exports valued at $50 billion, followed by Switzerland, Germany, Singapore, and India [5] - Singapore has prioritized pharmaceutical supply chains in trade negotiations with the U.S., with discussions planned for later this month [5] - India heavily relies on the U.S. market, exporting $27.9 billion worth of pharmaceuticals, with nearly one-third going to the U.S. [5]