Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-07-10 10:49Core Viewpoint - The surge in demand for hedging has led to a significant increase in trading activity in the futures market, driven by multiple factors including trade policy uncertainty, rising U.S. debt risks, and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Trading Activity - In June, the national futures market recorded a trading volume of 740 million contracts and a turnover of 52.79 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 28.91% and 17.25% respectively [1]. - For the first half of the year, the cumulative trading volume reached 4.076 billion contracts with a turnover of 339.73 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 17.82% and 20.68% [1]. Factors Driving Activity - Increased trade friction has disrupted global commodity expectations, particularly in agricultural and energy sectors, leading to heightened hedging and speculative activities [1]. - The rise in U.S. debt risks has spread a risk-averse sentiment, making government bond futures and precious metals futures key asset allocation tools [1]. - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts have exacerbated instability in the energy and chemical sectors, further driving the "hedging + speculation" trading logic [1]. Market Innovations - The deepening reforms and innovations in the futures market have also contributed to active trading, with the introduction of new products and relaxed regulations for international participants [2]. - The trading volume of gold and oil has become a focal point, with gold and gold options seeing increases of 80.35% and 128.36% respectively in the first half of the year [2]. Future Outlook - The overall trading activity in the futures market is expected to remain high in the second half of the year, driven by continuous investor expansion and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [3][4]. - However, the growth rate may slow down, and there will be increased differentiation among trading varieties due to potential easing of geopolitical conflicts [4]. Specific Commodity Insights - Analysts remain optimistic about the gold futures market, expecting continued high trading volumes due to persistent global uncertainties and the U.S. Federal Reserve's policies [5][6]. - The container shipping index futures have recently rebounded, although the overall market remains under pressure from high supply and trade policy risks [6].