OPEC+与特朗普博弈，油价未来可能到这个数字

Core Viewpoint - The report from Societe Generale maintains a bearish outlook on the oil market, predicting Brent crude oil prices will reach $60 per barrel by the end of 2025 and $50 per barrel by the end of 2026 [1][8]. OPEC+ Production Adjustments - OPEC+ has accelerated its normalization process, agreeing to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, up from a previous increase of 411,000 barrels per day [2][3]. - The decision was unanimously approved by the eight core member countries during a brief Zoom meeting, contrasting with previous meetings where there were disagreements [2]. - OPEC+ aims to restore production levels that were previously cut, with nearly 80% of the planned increase expected to be realized by August, just five months after the initial plan was set [3][4]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Despite the increase in production, oil inventories remain low, and the supply-demand balance is expected to tighten during the summer [2][4]. - Geopolitical risks persist, highlighted by recent conflicts in the Middle East, which could impact oil supply and prices [2][4]. - The organization is prioritizing market share over price defense, indicating a strategic shift towards increasing production rather than maintaining higher prices [4]. U.S. Shale Production Insights - A recent survey by the Dallas Federal Reserve indicates that uncertainty in the U.S. shale sector is rising, with nearly half of the executives expecting to drill fewer wells in 2025 compared to the beginning of the year [6][7]. - The survey reflects concerns over rising costs and declining oil and gas production, with a significant percentage of respondents anticipating a reduction in drilling activity if oil prices remain at $60 or $50 per barrel [7][8]. Future Outlook - The next OPEC meeting is scheduled for August 3, 2025, where member countries will decide on production levels for September [5]. - Analysts are closely watching the International Energy Agency's upcoming oil outlook report for July, which may provide insights into demand adjustments and the ongoing trends in U.S. shale production [9][10].