ETF日报：伴随“反内卷”事件共同驱动下，煤价反弹支撑力较强，可以关注全市场唯一品种的煤炭ETF

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced slight increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3500 points, rising by 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.47%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.22%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.49 trillion yuan, a decrease of 11 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Coal Industry Insights - The Coal ETF (515220) rose by 1.77%, recording three consecutive bullish candles in the daily K-line chart, with significant capital inflow over the past four trading days [2]. - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting emphasized the need for a unified national market and addressed "involution" competition, aiming to establish foundational rules and eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation [4]. - Due to the ongoing high-temperature weather, electricity demand for cooling is expected to rise significantly, leading to increased thermal coal demand and higher coal prices as the peak summer season approaches. Year-to-date, thermal coal prices have dropped by 146 yuan per ton, while coking coal prices have decreased by 290 yuan per ton, resulting in a more than 50% decline in profits for the coal industry from January to May [4]. - The current "anti-involution" measures differ from past capacity reduction efforts, focusing on limiting production and phasing out excess capacity. This is expected to tighten domestic coal supply and increase electricity consumption, with a strong rebound in coal prices anticipated by the second half of 2025 as seasonal demand rises and production growth slows [5]. Photovoltaic Industry Developments - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing price increases, with multi-crystalline silicon manufacturers raising their price range to 45,000-50,000 yuan per ton, although actual transactions at this level have not yet been observed [6]. - The government has intensified efforts to regulate low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, with a focus on industry self-discipline and technological innovation [6][11]. - The photovoltaic sector is currently facing supply-demand imbalances, particularly in silicon materials, although there have been improvements in gross margins for silicon wafers and cells [9]. - The photovoltaic glass sector has shown signs of capacity improvement, with production capacity decreasing in recent months due to falling demand and prices after a brief recovery [7]. - Overall, the "anti-involution" measures are expected to optimize the industry structure, balance supply and demand, and restore profitability while facilitating the exit of weaker competitors [11].