十年国债ETF（511260）规模超150亿元，近1个月净流入额超百亿元，机构表示三季度仍是利率债做多窗口期

Core Viewpoint - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) has seen significant net inflows, exceeding 1.1 billion yuan over the past five days and over 10 billion yuan in the last month, indicating strong investor interest and liquidity [1]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-Year Treasury Index, with an average duration of 7.6 years. Since its inception, the ETF has consistently achieved new net asset value highs, with a one-year return of 6.02%, a three-year return of 15.04%, a five-year return of 19.26%, and a cumulative return of 34.63% [1]. - The ETF has maintained positive annual returns for seven consecutive years from 2018 to 2024, positioning it as a resilient asset for navigating market cycles [1]. Group 2: Unique Advantages - The ETF offers T+0 trading, allowing investors to buy and sell on the same day, which is advantageous in a low-interest, high-volatility environment [1]. - It features low trading fees, enhancing capital efficiency for investors [2]. - The ETF provides transparency with daily published PCF lists, allowing investors to see holdings [3]. - Investors can use the ETF for collateralized repurchase agreements, enabling them to access funds for other investments while retaining the ability to redeem the ETF later [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Institutions suggest that the third quarter remains a favorable period for investing in interest rate bonds. Longjiang Securities anticipates limited substantial growth policies before the end of Q3, with potential adjustments in the bond market due to ample liquidity and weak internal momentum expectations [3]. - The recommendation is to adjust allocations when the 10-year Treasury yield approaches 1.65%. If fiscal measures increase in Q4, yields may rise above 1.8%, but if economic pressures mount, monetary policy may ease, potentially lowering yields back to previous lows around 1.6% [3].