风险溢价有限 产能加速释放 下半年国际油价下行压力加大

Core Viewpoint - The international oil price is under increasing downward pressure due to multiple factors, including OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical risks, and U.S. tariff policies [2][6][10]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in August, marking the fourth increase this year [2][6]. - The international oil price has shown a downward trend, with Brent crude oil futures dropping from $75.93 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $70.19 per barrel by July 9 [3]. - The price of Brent crude oil peaked at $78.85 per barrel on June 19 but fell to $71.48 per barrel by June 23 following geopolitical developments [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is expected to dominate oil price trends in the second half of the year, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production [6][8]. - The U.S. government's tariff policies are seen as a significant uncertainty that could impact global oil demand [6][10]. - Analysts predict that the supply-demand relationship will shift towards oversupply, particularly if OPEC+ accelerates production increases [8][10]. Group 3: Price Forecasts - Experts have differing views on the price range for Brent crude oil in the second half of the year, with expectations generally leaning towards a bearish outlook [9]. - Predictions suggest that Brent crude oil prices may range from $60 to $85 per barrel, with a central price around $75 [9]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude oil prices could drop to approximately $59 per barrel by the fourth quarter of this year [11].