Orchid Projects Loss for Q2: Is RMBS Strategy Backfiring?

Core Insights - Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) estimates a net loss of 29 cents per share for Q2 2025, primarily due to losses on residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and derivative instruments [1][9] - The estimated book value per share is $7.21, reflecting a 15.9% year-over-year decline, with a negative total return on equity of 4.7% as of June 30, 2025 [2][9] Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Orchid's RMBS portfolio value is estimated at $6.9 million, indicating a challenging quarter due to net realized and unrealized losses [3][9] - Over the past three months, ORC shares have increased by 18.6%, outperforming the industry growth of 14% [7] Competitive Landscape - AGNC Investment focuses on leveraged investments in Agency RMBS, with a portfolio value of $70.5 billion as of March 31, 2025, and a tangible net book value of $8.25 per share [5] - Annaly Capital Management primarily invests in Agency mortgage-backed securities, holding $75 billion in Agency MBS as of March 31, 2025, with a book value per share of $19.02 [6] Valuation Metrics - Orchid trades at a forward price-to-tangible (P/TB) ratio of 1.03X, which is above the industry average of 1X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ORC's earnings in 2025 and 2026 suggests significant year-over-year increases of 394.4% and 24.5%, respectively [13]