美联储主席候选人沃勒：主张温和整体缩表至5.8万亿，支持降息成“少数派”

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggests that the U.S. central bank should have the capability to gradually reduce bank reserves from the current $3.26 trillion to around $2.7 trillion, while also emphasizing the importance of a measured approach to balance sheet reduction [1][2] Group 1: Balance Sheet Reduction - Waller indicates that the overall balance sheet size could decrease from $6.7 trillion to $5.8 trillion when including the Federal Reserve's currency holdings and the U.S. Treasury's general account balance [1] - He proposes that the reduction of reserve balances could be achieved through the natural expiration and early repayment of securities [1] - Waller highlights the critical nature of determining a "sufficient" reserve level to assess the upper limit of balance sheet reduction, which directly impacts the overnight funding market [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy - Waller reiterates his belief that the federal funds rate is set too strictly and may support a rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [2] - This stance places him in the minority among his colleagues, despite recent calls from the Trump administration for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [2] - Critics argue that the Federal Reserve should restore its balance sheet size to pre-financial crisis levels, which saw an increase from approximately $800 billion to over $2 trillion during the 2008 crisis [2] Group 3: Asset Composition - Waller suggests increasing the proportion of short-term assets in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, with long-term securities used primarily to hedge against monetary liabilities [2] - He addresses a proposal from market participants to mimic the U.S. Treasury market by setting the short-term asset ratio at 20%, arguing that while it may alleviate pressure on the yield curve, it could extend the balance sheet's duration and increase potential income loss risks for the Federal Reserve [2]