解构“中场答卷” 五大因素影响钢市基本面

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Trends - The manufacturing sector in China is showing positive signs, with the June PMI at 49.7%, a 0.2 percentage point increase, indicating a recovery in both production and new orders [1] - The manufacturing demand for steel is expected to increase as more policies are implemented to stabilize and boost the economy, including the issuance of special bonds and urban renewal projects [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Global Economic Conditions - There is a widespread optimism regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, with expectations of three rate cuts in the second half of the year, which could enhance global liquidity and improve steel export conditions for China [2] - The depreciation of the US dollar is significant, with the dollar index dropping below 96.50, raising concerns about the dollar's future and potentially leading to increased demand for steel in developing countries [3] Group 3: Trade Relations and Real Estate Market - The trade relationship between China and the US is expected to improve, reducing the intensity of the tariff war, which could positively impact China's steel market [4] - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and increasing housing sales, which will likely boost steel demand [5]