原油：关税矛盾冲击需求 市场担忧增加拖累油价回调

Market Overview - As of July 11, uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies and concerns over supply surplus have led to a decline in international oil prices, with NYMEX crude futures for August dropping by $1.81 to $66.57 per barrel, a decrease of 2.65% [1] - ICE Brent crude futures for September fell by $1.55 to $68.64 per barrel, down 2.21% [1] - In contrast, China's INE crude futures for the main contract 2508 increased by 4.6 to 520.3 yuan per barrel, but fell by 7.5 to 512.8 yuan in the night session [1] Key Information - Nigeria is seeking to increase its OPEC production quota, with the national oil company's CEO stating a target of reaching 1.9 million barrels per day by year-end, compared to the current quota request of 1.5 million barrels per day for 2025-2026 [1][3] - Pertamina, an Indonesian refiner, has purchased a shipment of Australian Wheatstone condensate, planning to transport it to Tuban in early September, having previously acquired Angolan and Nigerian crude [1] - Exolum reported a 3.7% year-on-year increase in oil product deliveries to the Spanish market in June, totaling 3.7 million cubic meters, with specific increases in unleaded gasoline and kerosene deliveries [1] Inventory Insights - According to Insights Global, diesel inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp oil trading hub decreased by 7.7 thousand tons to 1.846 million tons, while gasoline inventories increased by 4.5 thousand tons to 1.141 million tons [2] - OPEC+ representatives indicated that the organization is considering pausing further production increases after completing the last monthly increase of 550,000 barrels in September, aiming to restore production to 2.2 million barrels per day [2] Market Dynamics - Oil prices are experiencing volatility due to geopolitical factors and concerns over OPEC+ demand forecasts, with the market interpreting the potential pause in production increases as a tightening supply signal [4] - The escalation of global trade tensions, including the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on Brazil and other trading partners, has raised fears of economic recession, leading to a belief that OPEC's decision to halt planned production increases is based on the inability of the global economy to absorb more oil supply [4] Short-term Strategy - The recommended short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on price resistance levels, with WTI facing resistance at $68-$69, Brent at $70-$71, and SC at 520-530 yuan [5]