PTA：产业链终端负反馈加剧 PTA反弹承压

Supply and Demand - As of July 10, the PTA operating rate has recovered to 79.7%, an increase of 1.5% [3] - The polyester comprehensive operating rate has declined to approximately 88.9%, a decrease of 1.3% [3] - The operating rates for downstream spinning, weaving, and dyeing are 62% (down 7%), 58% (down 4%), and 67% (unchanged) respectively [3] - Downstream factories are reducing raw material inventory, with most operating on a rigid 3-5 day basis [3] Market Conditions - On July 10, PTA spot prices were discussed in the range of 4720 to 4750, with some transactions slightly lower [1] - The PTA processing fee has decreased to approximately 135 yuan/ton for spot and 300 yuan/ton for the TA2509 futures [2] - The PTA basis has weakened significantly recently due to reduced demand and expectations of lower production in downstream polyester factories [4] Outlook - The expectation for PTA supply and demand has turned weaker due to strong production cut expectations in downstream polyester factories and continued weak terminal demand [4] - Despite the PTA processing fee being at a very low level, the absolute price rebound space for PTA is limited due to rising oil prices and intensified negative feedback from the terminal [4] - The short-term strategy for TA is to treat it as a range-bound market between 4600 and 4800 [4]