国债期货：资金边际略收敛叠加股市上涨 期债回落

Market Performance - Treasury futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.36%, the 10-year main contract down 0.16%, the 5-year main contract down 0.14%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.04% [1] - Major interbank bond yields rose, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 1.3 basis points to 1.8730%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield rising by 1.4 basis points to 1.7380%, the 10-year government bond yield up by 1.35 basis points to 1.6585%, and the 2-year government bond yield increasing by 1.5 basis points to 1.3900% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 900 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a bid amount of 900 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 900 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 572 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 328 billion yuan [2] - Overnight pledged repo rates slightly increased to around 1.32%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate rose nearly 2 basis points to 1.49% [2] - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit from major banks was around 1.62%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [2] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the goal of achieving new urbanization by 2035, focusing on high-quality advancement through four major actions [3] - The commission plans to leverage "two heavy" and "two new" funding uses to increase investment in key areas of new urbanization [3] - Incremental policy expectations may have contributed to a stronger stock market, although the intensity, scale, and impact of the policies need further observation [3] Operational Recommendations - June CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, while PPI was weaker than expected, indicating unclear directional trends [4] - External demand may see marginal recovery, potentially boosting manufacturing sentiment, but employment and corporate expectation indicators are showing a downward trend, suggesting the need for stronger internal economic momentum [4] - The funding environment is expected to remain loose in early to mid-July, which is favorable for the bond market, although short-term funding rates are gradually bottoming out, constraining the yield curve [4] - In the absence of driving forces in the bond market, the equity market's strong performance may suppress the bond market, but fundamental and funding support for the bond market remains intact [4] - A wait-and-see approach is recommended for single strategies, with potential opportunities for allocation after stabilization, while continuing to focus on steepening strategies [4]