最新纪要27次提及经济“不确定性” 美联储官员对降息仍持审慎立场

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among officials regarding the impact of U.S. tariff policies on inflation, contributing to uncertainty in economic policy [1] - The term "uncertainty" was mentioned 27 times in the minutes, highlighting the complexities faced by the Federal Reserve due to rapid changes in U.S. economic policies [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fourth consecutive time, with market expectations shifting regarding potential rate cuts following mixed signals from officials [1] Group 2 - Current monetary policy positions among the 12 Federal Reserve voting members show considerable divergence, with 6 holding a neutral stance and 2 adopting a hawkish position [2] - The minutes indicate that while some policymakers are open to rate cuts if data aligns with their expectations, the overall support for short-term rate cuts remains limited [2] - The cautious approach to adjusting monetary policy reflects a consensus among officials that there may not be a need for rate cuts this year [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma regarding interest rate cuts, needing to balance the prevention of economic recession with the risks of inflation due to tariffs and trade protection measures [3] - Key factors influencing the Fed's potential shift to a dovish stance include significant changes in U.S. economic data, particularly if economic contraction becomes evident while inflation remains manageable [3] - Despite some signs of weakness in the job market, overall employment data suggests resilience, leading to a lower probability of rate cuts in July [3]