Macro News - The main gold futures price in Shanghai reported at 774.36 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.41%. The opening price was 774.6 CNY per gram, with a high of 775.46 CNY and a low of 770.46 CNY [1] - Recent developments indicate that tariff negotiations between the US and Europe are accelerating, with the automotive sector being a key focus for the EU. Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro may request Trump to lift tariffs on Brazil, while current President Lula has stated that if negotiations with the US fail, reciprocal tariffs will be implemented. Chile is seeking exemption from US copper tariffs, and Vietnam has not agreed to Trump's proposed tariff increase from 11% to 20% [1] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a consideration for interest rate cuts in the fall, with expectations of two cuts this year. There is no evidence of sustained tariff impacts on prices. The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in July is 92.8%, with a 7.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 29.7%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 65.4% [1] Institutional Views - As the deadline for tariff negotiations approaches, market risk aversion has slightly returned, allowing gold to demonstrate resilience. Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have increased expectations for a rate cut in September, providing support for precious metals. Overall, despite short-term market fluctuations, the substantial increase in US tariffs is expected to lead to a rebound in inflation and economic slowdown, with the "Big and Beautiful" act likely exacerbating US debt and deficit issues. Therefore, support for precious metals is expected to remain resilient, continuing a high-level oscillation trend [1]
银河期货：关税效应发酵美经济前景蒙阴 贵金属将延续高位震荡走势
Jin Tou Wang·2025-07-11 06:03