余伟文再谈近期港元市场的动态：“弱方兑换保证”可能会再度被触发

Core Viewpoint - The current Hong Kong dollar (HKD) market dynamics indicate a significant interest rate spread between Hong Kong and the US, making carry trades still profitable and keeping the HKD close to the 7.85 level [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the US remains wide, which supports the profitability of carry trades [1] - The HKD is expected to remain near the 7.85 level due to supply and demand changes in HKD funds and other uncertainties, including US Federal Reserve monetary policy and global financial market conditions [1] Group 2: Potential Triggers - The "weak side convertibility guarantee" may be triggered again, with its extent and timing influenced by market conditions, particularly the supply and demand for funds [1] - As the HKD supply and demand approach balance, an upward adjustment in HKD interbank rates may become more apparent, indicating increased sensitivity of HKD interbank rates to market liquidity changes [1] Group 3: Future Expectations - Market participants should be prepared for potential upward adjustments in Hong Kong interest rates [1]