市场情绪稍转悲观 玉米2509合约以震荡回调为主

Market Review - The main corn futures contract closed down 0.09% at 2320 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that due to dry weather in unharvested areas, corn harvesting progressed rapidly, with 70.4% of the planted area harvested. Argentina is the world's third-largest corn exporter, with an expected corn production of 49 million tons for the 2024/25 season [2] - The USDA's weekly export sales report indicated that as of the week ending July 3, 2025, the net sales of U.S. corn for the 2024/25 season were 1,262,100 tons, significantly higher than the previous week and 70% above the four-week average. For the 2025/26 season, net sales were 888,600 tons, down from 940,200 tons the previous week [2] - The latest USDA drought report showed that as of the week ending July 8, approximately 12% of U.S. corn planting areas were affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and up from 7% in the same period last year [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Jianxin Futures, overall processing demand is unlikely to increase, while wheat and imported corn continue to supplement market supply, leading to a slightly pessimistic market sentiment and a minor price correction. However, the rising costs of storage funds may limit the decline. The 2509 contract is expected to follow the spot market with a focus on fluctuations, and attention should be paid to weather impacts on new crops in corn-producing areas [3] - Southwest Futures noted that domestic corn supply and demand are tending towards balance, with favorable policies and recovering consumption. The sale of old grain in major production areas is nearing completion, and port inventories are quickly returning, reducing inventory pressure and providing strong support at the bottom for corn prices. From January to May, corn imports sharply decreased, and import margins have increased, suggesting potential for higher import volumes in the future. The China Grain Reserves Corporation continues to sell corn through online auctions, and imported corn is beginning to be released. The narrowing price gap with substitutes may face upward pressure, indicating a cautious outlook [3]