对话野村全球宏观研究主管苏博文：特朗普加征关税不只为减少贸易逆差，美国经济滞胀压力将很快显现

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around President Trump's new round of tariffs and the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which raises concerns about inflation, economic direction, and global trade dynamics [1][2][10] - Trump's plan to impose a 15% or 20% uniform tariff on nearly all trade partners is expected to create significant uncertainty in the global economy [2][8] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill is projected to increase the U.S. budget deficit by over $3 trillion in the next decade, averaging an increase of $340 billion per year [10][11] Group 2 - The recent tariff increases are not solely aimed at reducing trade deficits but also involve broader geopolitical considerations, as seen in the case of Brazil where a 50% tariff is imposed despite a trade surplus [3][4][5] - The tariffs are primarily directed at smaller emerging market economies, many of which do not have significant trade surpluses with the U.S. [5] - The potential for retaliatory tariffs from other countries could harm U.S. export businesses, leading to a decline in exports and further impacting economic growth and employment [8][9] Group 3 - The inflationary pressures in the U.S. are expected to rise, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) predicted to increase from 2.8% to 3.3% by mid-2025 [9] - The U.S. GDP growth rate is forecasted to slow to 1.3% this year, influenced by reduced consumer spending due to inflation [9][10] - The Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts until December, with anticipated cuts being smaller than market expectations due to ongoing inflation concerns [10][12]