Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-07-11 08:33Industry Core Viewpoints - The humanoid robot industry is at a "dawn moment" with the year of mass production beginning, driven by continuous investments from tech giants like Tesla, Huawei, and Figure AI, which are expected to accelerate industry iteration and breakthroughs [1] - The industry is at a critical juncture for technological breakthroughs and commercialization, supported by policies, increasing entrants, and AI large model empowerment, with growing market demand due to aging populations and rising labor costs [1] - The humanoid robot market is anticipated to evolve from B2B to B2C, indicating a broad future market space [1] Investment Highlights - From January 2024 to June 26, 2025, the humanoid robot index has consistently outperformed the Wind All A index, with excess returns driven by two main factors: concentrated technological breakthroughs and policy catalysts [2] - The supply side of the humanoid robot industry is rapidly flourishing, with leading overseas companies like Tesla and Figure AI advancing product iterations and commercial applications, while China emerges as the most active market for humanoid robots [2] - Domestic humanoid robot products are showcasing strong competitiveness in key features like intelligence and motion control, accelerating their mass production pace [2] Mass Production Plans - The second half of 2025 is a critical window for mass production validation, with the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots" aiming for batch production and the cultivation of 2-3 globally influential companies [3] - Companies like Tesla, Figure AI, and others plan to achieve initial mass production by 2025, with applications progressing from industrial training to B2B and eventually to household services [3] - AI large models are crucial for humanoid robots, but software development currently lags behind hardware, necessitating breakthroughs in this area [3] Demand Side - The global aging trend is intensifying, leading to a tighter labor market and increasing demand for robots to replace human labor, particularly in elder care [4] - Economic growth and rising labor costs are driving the cost of humanoid robots down, with Tesla's CEO Musk indicating that the future price of Optimus may be below $20,000 per unit [4] - The humanoid robot market is projected to reach $20 billion by 2030, indicating significant future market potential [4] Investment Recommendations - The humanoid robot industry is at a pivotal moment with mass production underway, and companies like Tesla and Huawei are expected to drive industry breakthroughs [5] - Focus on companies entering or likely to enter Tesla's supply chain as the product matures, and on Huawei's early-stage supply chain with significant potential [5] - Attention should be given to companies mastering core component technologies and achieving low-cost mass production, as well as those benefiting from the large-scale application of humanoid robots [5]