Where Will Alibaba Stock Be in 1 Year?

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's stock has shown a nearly 50% increase over the past year, but it remains 65% below its all-time high from October 2020, indicating potential for future growth despite challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - In fiscal 2022, Alibaba's revenue grew by 19%, but growth slowed to 2% in fiscal 2023, 8% in fiscal 2024, and is projected at 6% for fiscal 2025, primarily due to regulatory and macroeconomic challenges [2][4][5]. - Analysts expect Alibaba's revenue to rise by 7% in fiscal 2026 and by 8% in fiscal 2027, with adjusted EPS growth projected at 8% and 14% respectively [10]. Challenges Faced - Alibaba faced significant regulatory challenges, including fines and restrictions from China's antitrust regulators, which limited its competitive strategies [4]. - The Chinese economy's slowdown, exacerbated by "zero-COVID" policies and a weak real estate market, negatively impacted consumer spending and cloud customer expenditures [5]. - Leadership changes, including the departure of CEO Daniel Zhang in 2023, raised concerns about the company's growth trajectory [6]. Business Stabilization - Despite challenges, Alibaba's retail business saw growth in overseas markets, which helped offset weaker performance in its domestic marketplaces [7]. - The company implemented cost-cutting measures, share buybacks, and increased revenue from higher-margin cloud and AI businesses, leading to improved earnings per share [8]. Future Outlook - Alibaba's stock trades at 11 times its forward adjusted earnings, with potential for a higher valuation if trade tensions ease, possibly rising to about $167 by fiscal 2027 [12]. - The company may integrate its various business units more closely, enhancing its competitive position against less diversified rivals [11].