美股狂飙之际现不祥之兆 卖压低迷预示回调将近?

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the current market conditions, characterized by a lack of selling pressure and a high concentration of trading in large tech stocks, may suggest an overly optimistic sentiment among investors, potentially leading to a market correction [1][4][5] - The S&P 500 index has reached record highs multiple times recently, with a notable increase of approximately 26% since late April, yet the volume of declining stocks has dropped to its lowest level since 2020, indicating a possible overconfidence in the market [1][4] - Historical data shows that similar market conditions in the past have often preceded declines of at least 5% in the S&P 500, suggesting that a correction could be on the horizon, although it may be limited to a 3% to 5% range [1][3] Group 2 - Investors are currently favoring aggressive sectors such as technology and finance over defensive sectors, reflecting a strong risk appetite, which may lead them to view any market pullback as a buying opportunity [3][4] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) has fallen to its lowest level since late February, indicating a decrease in demand for protection against market downturns, which could be interpreted as a sign of investor complacency [4][5] - Despite the low VIX levels, it is suggested that this does not indicate a lack of awareness regarding risks, as investors have already priced in known uncertainties such as trade tensions and economic growth concerns [5]