TARIFF PAUSE SPURS GLOBAL MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY IN JUNE, WITH GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS NOW OPERATING CLOSE TO FULL CAPACITY: GEP GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY INDEX

Core Insights - The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index increased to -0.17 in June 2025 from -0.46 in May, indicating a recovery in global supply chain activity despite ongoing tariffs [1] - European manufacturers returned to full capacity for the first time in over two years, driven by strong demand from US customers and a rebound in domestic and export demand, particularly in Germany [1][8] - North American manufacturers significantly increased their purchasing activity ahead of a potential end to the tariff pause, leading to a rise in the index to -0.06 from -0.24 [2][9] Demand Conditions - Global factory purchasing activity showed a robust upward trend in June, with North America experiencing the most significant increase [7][8] - The index for Asia rose to -0.27 from -0.40, indicating a pick-up in activity, although overall supply chains in Southeast Asia remain underutilized [9] Supply Chain Capacity - The index for Europe rose to 0.01 from -0.30, signaling full capacity utilization across European supply chains as the industrial sector recovers [9] - In the UK, the index improved to -0.41 from -0.97, indicating a reduction in slack but still reflecting underutilization [9] Inventory and Material Shortages - Reports of increased stockpiling due to price or supply concerns were at their highest in 2025, with businesses building safety buffers in warehouses [15] - The global item shortages indicator remains historically low, suggesting robust availability of materials [15] Labor and Transportation - Suppliers' workforce capacity is sufficient to handle current order loads, with stable reports of manufacturing backlogs due to staff shortages [15] - Global transportation costs aligned with long-term averages, and logistic cost pressures remained stable [15]