蒙特利尔银行：美加贸易谈判难以避免持久性关税

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada are likely to result in persistent tariffs on Canadian imports, as indicated by recent communications from President Trump to Canadian Prime Minister Carney [1] Group 1: Trade Relations - Robert Kavcic, an economist at the Bank of Montreal, suggests that regardless of the outcomes of discussions between Trump and Carney, tariffs on Canadian goods will continue [1] - Trump warned that Canadian imports not complying with the USMCA regulations could face tariffs as high as 35% [1] - The possibility of tariffs targeting specific industries remains, indicating a prolonged period of trade tension [1] Group 2: Cooperation on Fentanyl - Trump mentioned that he might consider adjusting tariff levels if Canada cooperates more with Washington in curbing fentanyl smuggling [1] - This suggests that trade negotiations may be influenced by broader issues such as drug trafficking, which could affect tariff decisions [1] Group 3: Economic Implications - Kavcic noted that the likelihood of avoiding some form of enduring tariffs appears increasingly unlikely [1]