美债信用的核心内耗与技术自救

Group 1 - The scale of US national debt has reached $36.22 trillion, with debt-to-GDP ratio rising to 123%, significantly exceeding international warning levels [1] - The "big and beautiful" plan proposed by Trump has raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, accelerating the increase in US debt ratio [1] - The expansion of debt implies increased repayment pressure, especially amid declining dollar and US government credit, leading to market skepticism about repayment capabilities [1] Group 2 - The dollar has transitioned from being gold-backed to oil-backed, maintaining its dominant position in international trade and finance for nearly 80 years [2] - The dollar's unique status has led to its role as a global "credit standard," with countries accumulating US Treasury bonds to bolster their own international credit [2] - The expansion of US national debt is a direct result of the expansion of dollar credit [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve, through modern monetary theory, creates incremental currency based on the quantity of national debt, ensuring that excessive dollar issuance does not lead to currency devaluation [3] - Geopolitical risks and the global shift towards green energy are diminishing the dollar's stability, while the Fed's balance sheet expansion has significantly increased dollar liquidity [3] - The Fed faces challenges in maintaining dollar credit amid rising geopolitical tensions and increased liquidity [3] Group 4 - Trump's intention to restructure the Federal Reserve aims to lower financing costs and ensure the sustainability of US debt issuance [4] - The potential loss of Fed independence could undermine its ability to control inflation and maintain the dollar's value [4] Group 5 - Trump's tariff policies aim to reverse the US trade deficit and compel capital to return to American manufacturing, but this could undermine the global trade system that supports the dollar's status [5] - The US's unilateral financial sanctions and misuse of the SWIFT system are eroding the dollar's international credibility [5][6] Group 6 - The US government credit is experiencing marginal decline due to political polarization and the erosion of policy continuity, leading to skepticism about the government's commitments [7] - The US has lost its leadership role in international organizations, further diminishing its credibility [8] Group 7 - The growing fiscal deficit has led to a vicious cycle of increased borrowing and rising debt service costs, with interest payments projected to exceed $1.1 trillion in FY2024 [9] - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to Aa, reflecting concerns over the government's creditworthiness [9] Group 8 - In response to declining demand for US Treasuries, the US government is exploring the issuance of stablecoins to support debt issuance [10][11] - The GENIUS Act aims to establish a framework for stablecoins backed by US Treasury bonds, potentially increasing demand for Treasuries [11][12] Group 9 - Stablecoins have become significant buyers of US Treasuries, with projections indicating that stablecoin issuance could lead to an additional $1.6 trillion in Treasury demand by 2028 [12][13] - The GENIUS Act mandates that stablecoins be backed by short-term US Treasuries, ensuring safety and liquidity [13]