Rise in AUM & Fee Revenues Likely to Aid BlackRock's Q2 Earnings

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock is expected to report improved second-quarter 2025 results, with revenues and earnings anticipated to show year-over-year growth [1][11]. Group 1: Performance and Estimates - BlackRock's first-quarter 2025 earnings exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven by revenue growth and a record high AUM of $11.58 trillion, influenced by net inflows and favorable forex impacts [1][2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total AUM in Q2 is $11.68 trillion, reflecting a 9.7% year-over-year increase, while the company's own estimate is $11.66 trillion [5]. - The consensus estimate for second-quarter earnings is $10.77 per share, indicating a 4% increase from the previous year, with sales expected to rise by 12% to $5.38 billion [11]. Group 2: Revenue Components - BlackRock is projected to see growth in investment advisory, administration fees, and securities-lending revenues, with a consensus estimate of $4.36 billion, representing a 12.6% year-over-year rise [6]. - The estimate for investment advisory performance fees is $156.6 million, showing a decline of 4.5%, while distribution fees are expected to rise by 1.7% to $323.3 million [7]. - Technology services revenues are estimated at $493.7 million, indicating a 25% year-over-year increase [7]. Group 3: Expenses and Strategic Initiatives - Total expenses for BlackRock are estimated at $3.33 billion, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 10.7, driven by restructuring initiatives and expansion efforts [9]. - The company continues to enhance its AUM through diversified offerings and strong revenue mix, with the listing of bitcoin ETPs contributing positively [4][5]. Group 4: Market Position and Outlook - BlackRock maintains a strong position in the ETF market, with over 1,400 ETFs globally, and the approval of spot Bitcoin and ether ETFs likely contributing to AUM growth [3]. - The company has a positive Earnings ESP of +1.28% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a high likelihood of beating the consensus estimate for earnings [10].