银行股价值重估的“台前幕后”

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector has experienced a significant upward trend, with the banking index showing a cumulative increase of over 16% year-to-date and more than 50% since the end of 2023, driven by substantial institutional capital inflows and a revaluation of bank stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Inflows and Market Dynamics - Following the announcement by Central Huijin to increase holdings in the four major state-owned banks in October 2023, bank stock prices surged, initiating a rally in the banking sector [2]. - The banking index has seen a cumulative increase of over 34% in 2024, with six constituent stocks rising over 30% this year [2]. - The low valuation and high dividend yield of bank stocks, averaging around 4%, make them attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [2][3]. Group 2: Changes in Fund Allocation - Insurance funds have shown consistent demand for bank stocks, with a trend towards deeper allocation, while passive funds have seen a decline in pricing power [3]. - As of the end of Q2 2023, northbound funds held a market value of 254.2 billion yuan in bank stocks, an increase of 26.6 billion yuan from the previous quarter [3]. - The new public fund regulations are expected to encourage active equity funds to increase their allocation to bank stocks, which currently have a significantly lower weight in portfolios compared to their index representation [3]. Group 3: Asset Quality and Policy Support - The banking sector has undergone a four-year adjustment period, with a significant undervaluation due to concerns over asset quality [5]. - Recent policies, including the issuance of special government bonds to bolster state-owned banks' capital, are expected to improve asset quality and support valuation recovery [5][6]. - The non-performing loan ratio for commercial banks has remained stable, with many listed banks performing better than the industry average [5]. Group 4: Impact on Financing and Economic Support - The revaluation of bank stocks enhances their financing capabilities, allowing for easier issuance of instruments like convertible bonds and improving capital adequacy [7]. - Increased bank stock prices and enhanced financing abilities are expected to boost credit supply, thereby supporting the real economy [7]. - The revaluation of bank stocks is seen as strategically significant for the capital market, enhancing overall market stability and attracting long-term institutional investments [8].