货币政策适度宽松 工具箱储备充足

Monetary Policy Overview - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained a supportive policy stance with moderate monetary easing, utilizing various tools to ensure stable financial market operations [1][2] - The PBOC's toolbox is well-stocked, and it will continue to adjust policy measures flexibly based on domestic and external economic conditions [1] Recent Developments - In the first half of the year, the bond market experienced a rapid decline in government bond yields due to excessive anticipation of monetary easing, while the strengthening US dollar put pressure on non-US currencies, leading to depreciation pressure on the RMB [1] - The PBOC implemented measures such as pausing government bond purchases and tightening monetary policy to guide market expectations [1] - Since June, macroeconomic performance has stabilized, and the urgency for aggressive monetary policy has decreased, shifting focus to stabilizing market expectations [2] Future Outlook - The PBOC has identified "promoting reasonable price recovery" as a key consideration for monetary policy, with plans to increase the intensity of monetary policy adjustments [3] - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, it may create more room for China to implement further easing measures [3] - Expectations suggest potential cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates in the second half of the year, with a possibility of a 50 basis point reserve requirement cut and a 20 basis point interest rate cut [3]