铂金周感受“铂金热” 价格狂飙之后须警惕回调风险

Group 1: Market Overview - Platinum has gained significant attention, with a notable increase in demand and interest compared to the previous year, as evidenced by the activities during the Shanghai Platinum Week [2] - As of July 11, 2023, NYMEX platinum futures were priced at $1432.8 per ounce, reflecting a 51% increase since the beginning of the year [2] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a closing price of 322.54 yuan per gram for platinum, marking a 45% rise from the start of the year [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a supply deficit of 966,000 ounces for the platinum market in 2023, which is expected to persist until 2029 [4] - Current mining supply is at a historical low due to previous price declines, leading to reduced capital expenditures by miners [4] - Recycling of platinum, particularly from used catalytic converters, is anticipated to increase significantly, with projections of 72 tons of platinum group metal recovery in China by 2028, an 84% increase from 2024 [5] Group 3: Investment Trends - Demand for platinum jewelry has surged, contributing to the price increase, with significant growth in imports noted in China [6][7] - The share of platinum investment demand in China has risen dramatically, from 11% in 2019 to 64% currently, with a notable increase in demand for platinum bars and coins [7] - Companies are shifting focus from gold to platinum due to lower acquisition costs and growing consumer interest in platinum jewelry [6][7] Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Experts suggest that while platinum prices may continue to rise, there are uncertainties due to various factors, including U.S. tariff policies [8][10] - Short-term price corrections are anticipated, with projections indicating that platinum prices may fluctuate between $1200 and $1500 per ounce [10] - The potential for price support exists due to safe-haven demand, but the market remains cautious about the sustainability of current price levels [9][10]