“关税狂人”特朗普政策见效？美国6月财政意外盈余

Core Insights - The U.S. federal government achieved a budget surplus of $2.7 billion in June 2025, the first surplus for that month since 2017, primarily due to a surge in tariff revenues and strong fiscal income [1] - The budget deficit for the first nine months of the fiscal year reached $1.34 trillion, a 5% increase compared to the previous year, although adjusted figures show a slight decrease of 1% [1] - Tariff revenues saw a significant increase, with customs duties reaching $27 billion in June, a 301% rise year-over-year, contributing to a cumulative tariff revenue of $113 billion for the fiscal year, an 86% increase [1][2] Revenue and Expenditure Analysis - Federal government revenue increased by 13% year-over-year in June, while expenditures decreased by 7% [1] - For the first nine months of the fiscal year, total revenue grew by 7%, and expenditures increased by 6% [1] Tariff Policy Impact - The surge in tariff income is attributed to the new broad tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration, which includes a 10% base tariff on all imports and additional tariffs on specific goods [2] - The administration has warned 23 countries of potential higher punitive tariffs if trade agreements are not reached by August 1, with rates potentially increasing from 25% to 50% [2] International Reactions - Various countries have expressed differing responses to the U.S. tariff measures, with Canada and Japan indicating a willingness to negotiate, while Brazil has strongly opposed the actions [3] Long-term Fiscal Concerns - Despite the short-term fiscal relief from increased tariff revenues, deeper structural issues remain, including rising interest payments on national debt, which reached $840 billion in June [3] - The total national debt has reached $36 trillion, with interest payments projected to exceed $1.2 trillion for the year [3][4] - The recently passed fiscal stimulus plan is expected to increase federal debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, further constraining fiscal space [4] Economic Implications - Analysts warn that while tariff policies may provide short-term benefits, potential retaliatory measures from other countries could disrupt global supply chains and cross-border investments [4] - High tariffs combined with inflationary pressures may delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, posing additional challenges to U.S. economic growth and debt sustainability [4]