特朗普关税风云第二季下，如何研判全球贸易中的逆风｜全球贸易观察

Group 1 - The new export orders index has dropped to 97.9, indicating a contraction and suggesting a slowdown in trade growth later this year [1][3] - Global trade is expected to face increasing resistance in the second half of 2025 due to rising uncertainties and trade restrictions, despite strong growth in the first half [1][6] - The World Bank has revised its forecast for global trade growth in 2025 down to approximately 1.8%, a significant decrease from earlier predictions [6][9] Group 2 - The WTO's global merchandise trade index rose from 102.8 in March to 103.5, indicating ongoing growth, but the weak export orders signal that this momentum may not be sustainable [3][6] - The UNCTAD report anticipates a $300 billion increase in global trade this year, but warns of significant challenges in the latter half due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [6][8] - The U.S. trade deficit has been widening over the past four quarters, exacerbating global trade imbalances [8][9] Group 3 - The World Bank's data shows a notable reduction in trade growth forecasts, particularly for developed economies, which are expected to see trade growth at about half of previous estimates [7][9] - The rise in tariffs and trade restrictions has led to a historical peak in trade policy uncertainty, impacting global trade dynamics [6][10] - Companies are currently hesitant to make investment decisions due to the unpredictable nature of trade policies, leading to a wait-and-see approach [10]