追踪关税的传导过程：羊毛出在谁身上？

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that U.S. importers are primarily bearing the burden of increased tariffs, with Chinese exporters currently absorbing about 12% of the tariff increment, particularly in the apparel sector [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Trade - The transmission of tariffs is a complex issue, with U.S. government tariff revenues surging in recent months. If the threatened tariffs from July materialize, the overall effective tariff rate in the U.S. could rise to approximately 15.8% [2]. - U.S. import prices, excluding food and energy, have not decreased following the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," indicating that non-U.S. exporters have not lowered their prices, thus U.S. importers are likely absorbing most of the tariff increases [3]. Group 2: Cost Transfer to Consumers - U.S. companies have expressed both the willingness and ability to pass on tariff costs to consumers. Despite previous instances where importers absorbed tariff increases without significantly raising retail prices, the broader scope of current tariffs makes it difficult for companies to maintain profit margins without raising prices [4]. - If U.S. retailers fully absorb the tariff increases, their profit margins could decline by an average of about 1.8%, which is particularly challenging for industries with already thin margins like retail, apparel, and furniture [4]. Group 3: Price Changes in Consumer Goods - The analysis of over 60,000 U.S. import goods suggests that prices of U.S. consumer goods with high import content are beginning to reflect the impact of tariffs. Products with a high "Chinese content" have started to see mild price increases following the implementation of the "fentanyl tariff," while goods from other non-U.S. trading partners have not yet experienced price hikes [5]. - The sustainability of the current low inflation environment in the U.S. post-tariff implementation will depend on whether U.S. companies continue to absorb costs or pass them on to consumers, with potential inflationary pressures expected in the latter half of the year [5].