Henan Zhongfu Industrial (SH:600595) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-07-12 12:23Core Viewpoint - The company expects significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by increased production and favorable cost conditions in the electrolytic aluminum business [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 680-720 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.35%-62.37% [1]. - The expected net profit for Q1 2025 is 230 million yuan, with Q2 2025 projected to be between 450-490 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 13%-23% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 96%-113% [1]. - The profit from electrolytic aluminum in Q2 2025 is estimated at 3378.6 yuan per ton, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase and a 42% quarter-on-quarter increase [3]. Group 2: Production and Capacity - The company completed the acquisition of a 24% stake in Zhongfu Aluminum, increasing its ownership in electrolytic aluminum to 100%, with an effective production capacity of 750,000 tons, up by approximately 120,000 tons from 2024 [1]. - The company’s electrolytic aluminum production is benefiting from both volume and price increases, although the price spread between domestic and international aluminum is compressing profit margins in Q2 2025 [1][3]. Group 3: Cost Structure - The estimated tax-inclusive electricity cost for electrolytic aluminum in Henan for Q2 2025 is 0.21 yuan per kWh, down 26% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The tax-inclusive electricity price in Sichuan for Q2 2025 is 0.51 yuan per kWh, showing a 1% year-on-year decrease and a 17% quarter-on-quarter decrease [2]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched an employee stock ownership plan aiming to raise up to 1.25 billion yuan, with a share transfer agreement to grant 260 million shares at 2.79 yuan per share, representing 6.47% of total share capital [4]. - The company has also announced a dividend plan for 2025-2027, committing to distribute at least 60% of the annual distributable profit in cash each year [4]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - As a leading player in the aluminum industry, the company is positioned for significant growth through resource advantages and cost efficiencies, with expectations of net profits of 1.8 billion, 2.3 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [4].