保险资金长周期考核机制落地，万亿增量资金蓄势待发

Core Viewpoint - The new regulation issued by the Ministry of Finance aims to establish a long-term assessment mechanism for insurance funds, promoting stable and long-term investments in the market, effective from the 2025 performance evaluation [1][3]. Group 1: Long-term Assessment Mechanism - The core of the notification is to significantly enhance the weight and coverage period of long-term assessments, with key performance indicators (KPIs) for "return on net assets" and "capital preservation and appreciation rate" now including five-year indicators alongside annual and three-year indicators [3]. - The weight distribution for the KPIs is set at 30% for the annual indicator, 50% for the three-year indicator, and 20% for the five-year indicator, resulting in a total weight of 70% for long-term assessments [3][4]. - This adjustment is a direct implementation of a previous plan aimed at encouraging long-term capital to enter the market, indicating a clear policy intent to shift insurance companies' focus from short-term performance anxiety to long-term investment decisions [3][4]. Group 2: Market Impact and Investment Potential - The long-term assessment mechanism is expected to significantly reduce the impact of short-term market fluctuations on insurance investment behavior, thereby stabilizing market operations and enabling better long-term returns [4]. - As of the end of 2024, the total balance of commercial insurance funds in China is projected to be approximately 33 trillion yuan, with only about 11% currently invested in A-shares, indicating substantial room for growth towards the regulatory target of 25% [4][5]. - The new policy mandates that large state-owned insurance companies allocate 30% of their new premiums to A-share investments starting in 2025, potentially generating over 300 billion yuan in incremental funds annually [5]. Group 3: Policy Synergy and Market Stability - The combination of three key policies—long-term assessments, mandatory premium investment ratios, and expanded pilot programs—could bring about a significant influx of capital into the A-share market, estimated at a trillion yuan level [5]. - If insurance funds increase their stock asset allocation by just 1%, it could result in approximately 350 billion yuan in additional funds, based on the total balance of 34.93 trillion yuan as of the first quarter of 2024 [5]. - The long-term investment behavior of insurance funds is expected to stabilize the market, reduce irrational volatility, and enhance the overall investment ecosystem, providing a solid foundation for supporting the real economy and new productive forces [6][7].