关税扰动又起，金价多空拉锯，“黄金+”还靠谱吗？

Core Viewpoint - Gold is currently in a trend of fluctuating upward movement, driven by renewed market risk aversion due to new tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties [1][3]. Price Movement - On July 11, gold prices rose to $3,370 per ounce, an increase of 1.34%. The COMEX gold futures prices have been fluctuating around the high level of $3,300 per ounce, with three consecutive days of gains [2][4]. - The market is experiencing significant volatility, with gold prices oscillating around $3,300 per ounce due to repeated tariff news [4]. Market Sentiment and Analysis - Analysts suggest that uncertainty premiums have returned to the market, leading to increased safe-haven buying of gold. However, the impact of Trump's tariff policies is causing ongoing fluctuations in market expectations [3][4]. - Citigroup has indicated that the short-term volatility risk is present, as market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have already been reflected in gold prices, potentially leading to a decrease in upward momentum [3]. Speculative Positions - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported that speculative net long positions in COMEX gold increased by 6,213 contracts to 136,697 contracts, a new 11-week high. However, this was followed by a reduction of 1,855 contracts to 134,842 contracts in the subsequent week [4]. Central Bank Activity - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 73.9 million ounces as of the end of June, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [5]. - Globally, central banks have been net buyers of gold for 15 consecutive years, with over 30% of surveyed reserve managers planning to increase their gold holdings in the coming year [5]. Investment Trends - Institutional investment in gold has significantly increased, with public funds and bank wealth management products expanding their "gold+" offerings, which typically allocate 5% to 10% of their portfolios to gold [6]. - The number of funds of funds (FOFs) holding gold ETFs has doubled over the past four years, with projections indicating that by mid-2025, the number will reach 234, surpassing the total for 2024 [6]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent price increases, the World Gold Council noted that individual investors often engage in short-term trading rather than long-term investment strategies, which poses challenges for sustained participation in the gold market [9][10]. - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and rising debt levels is expected to maintain gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with a trend towards increased allocation of gold assets continuing [10].