原奶行业触底，反转尚需一年，行业重新审视产业发展方式

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese raw milk industry has experienced significant losses due to multiple industrial cycles, but it is now at the bottom of its current cycle, with a potential reversal expected in about a year [2][4]. Industry Adjustment - The raw milk industry has been in a deep adjustment phase for the past three years, with prices continuously declining. As of the first week of July, the average price of fresh milk in major producing provinces was 3.04 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% [3]. - The industry is expected to reach a turning point in 2025, but current conditions indicate that the supply-demand balance and price stabilization require further capacity reduction in the upstream sector [4][6]. Economic Impact - Since 2023, the cumulative income loss in the dairy farming sector is estimated to reach 70 billion yuan, with losses from fresh milk powder production amounting to 20 billion yuan [5]. - The industry has faced a dual dilemma of price fluctuations and seasonal supply issues, with significant price volatility observed since 2000 [5]. Reevaluation of Development Strategies - The industry is reassessing its development strategies, particularly regarding the mechanisms for linking interests within the industry. The focus is on transforming and upgrading dairy farming practices [6]. - The report suggests that while certain international models may not be directly applicable to China, the U.S. model of market-driven pricing and profit assurance could serve as a reference [6]. Recommendations for Improvement - The report advocates for enhancing the management and regulatory roles of agricultural departments and industry organizations, as well as establishing a pricing mechanism for fresh milk that reflects market conditions and protects the interests of farmers [7]. - It emphasizes the need for a legally binding pricing mechanism for fresh milk in China, similar to the U.S. system, to ensure fair distribution of benefits across the supply chain [7].