穿越波动 寻找驱动消费行业增长的长期力量

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing structural differentiation amid a steady domestic economic recovery and external uncertainties, with a shift from trend speculation to valuation and return matching [2] Group 1: Market Environment - The A-share market is navigating through fluctuations with ongoing internal and external disturbances, including geopolitical tensions and global capital reallocation [2] - The consumer sector is in a complex recovery phase, with some categories showing signs of marginal recovery while others face performance and valuation rebalancing due to reduced policy support [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The focus is on "profit-driven, value investment" principles, emphasizing the balance between growth and valuation, as well as risk and drawdown management [2] - Investment strategies will prioritize consumer companies with robust fundamentals, strong cash flow, and sustainable business models, while maintaining flexibility to adapt to potential policy impacts and macroeconomic fluctuations [2] Group 3: Long-term Investment Themes - Emerging consumer categories are expanding, driven by brand power and changes in consumer demographics and channels, with opportunities in beauty, small appliances, personal care, and functional foods [3] - The globalization of domestic brands continues, with Chinese brands leveraging local supply chains and cost advantages to penetrate global markets, particularly in IP, tea, food, and 3C electronics [3] - The revaluation of dividend assets is becoming significant, with high ROE, stable dividends, and strong free cash flow consumer companies attracting more capital, indicating a shift towards return-focused investment [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite cyclical disturbances in the consumer industry in the second half of 2025, structural, differentiated, and long-term opportunities are emerging [4] - The approach will remain research-driven, focusing on industry trends and company fundamentals to select high-quality companies capable of navigating cycles and delivering sustainable long-term returns [4]