关税战持续 银价的补涨行情有望持续

Group 1 - As of July 11, 2025, the main contract for Shanghai silver futures closed at 9040 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase in open interest by 152,238 contracts [1] - During the week of July 7-11, the Shanghai silver futures opened at 8919 yuan/kg, reached a high of 9118 yuan/kg, and a low of 8840 yuan/kg, resulting in a weekly change of 1.38% [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials have signaled a dovish stance, with Waller suggesting a potential rate cut in July and Daly emphasizing that tariffs may not impact inflation as much as expected, indicating room for about two rate cuts this year [2] - On July 9, the trading volume for silver futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was 50,874 contracts, a decrease of 9,779 contracts from the previous trading day [2] - On July 10, the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a decrease of 23,751 kg in silver warehouse receipts, with a total reduction of 43,634 kg over the past week, representing a decline of 3.25% [2] Group 3 - Guotai Junan Futures believes that after a significant rebound, silver prices will revert to fundamentals under commodity attributes, with global silver supply expected to increase and demand to decrease, narrowing the supply-demand gap to a four-year low [3] - Jinyuan Futures notes that despite Trump's tariffs boosting demand for safe-haven assets, a strong US dollar limits gold price increases, while high copper tariffs are positively impacting silver prices [3] - The current market's reduced sensitivity to tariffs and rising risk assets have diminished gold's attractiveness, while silver's strong performance is attributed to its low price and demand for a rebound [3]