出行旺季支撑成品油需求，短期油价偏强震荡

Core Viewpoint - The oil and petrochemical sector is experiencing strong demand for refined oil during the travel peak season, leading to a short-term bullish fluctuation in oil prices. However, with OPEC+ accelerating production increases, there are concerns about potential downward pressure on international oil prices in the medium to long term [2][4]. Oil and Petrochemical Sector - As of July 4-11, 2025, WTI crude oil futures closed up by 3.05%, while Brent oil futures rose by 3.09% [2]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Hamas, and Iran's cautious approach to nuclear negotiations, are contributing to short-term support for oil prices [2]. - The U.S. saw an increase in commercial crude oil inventories, but gasoline and jet fuel stocks decreased, indicating strong refined oil demand during the summer travel season [2]. - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, with Saudi Arabia planning a final monthly increase of 550,000 barrels per day in September [2]. - There are concerns that after the peak season, international oil prices may face greater downward pressure due to accelerated production increases by OPEC+ [2][4]. Fluorochemical Sector - The supply of popular fluorinated refrigerants is tight, with prices remaining high. R32 prices continue to rise, while R134a prices are stable [3]. - The supply side is constrained due to policy restrictions, while demand from the automotive and air conditioning sectors is strong, supported by national subsidy policies [3]. - In the first half of 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 15.62 million and 15.65 million units, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% [3]. - The production of second-generation refrigerants is decreasing, while the production and quotas for third-generation refrigerants are locked in, leading to a high concentration of supply and supporting continued price increases [3]. Investment Recommendations - The oil and petrochemical sector is recommended for attention due to ongoing geopolitical risks and strong refined oil demand during the summer travel season, although medium-term concerns about price declines exist [4]. - The fluorochemical sector is also highlighted, with expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics driven by government subsidies and strong downstream demand [4]. - Companies to watch in the oil sector include China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC, while in the fluorochemical sector, focus on leading companies in third-generation refrigerants and upstream fluorite resources [4].