“双焦”供需偏弱形势未变 对煤价仍有拖累

Group 1 - The overall trend of "double coke" futures prices continued to decline since October last year, with a rebound observed in June 2025 [1] - The coking coal market faced supply pressure leading to a continuous drop in prices, while coke prices followed suit due to cost collapse [1][2] - In the first quarter, domestic coal production was high, but a seasonal decline occurred during the Spring Festival, followed by a rapid recovery in production [1][2] Group 2 - The second quarter saw an oversupply of coke capacity and weak bargaining power, leading to continuous price reductions [2] - International trade tensions exacerbated market pessimism, further driving down commodity prices [2] - By the latter half of the second quarter, environmental policies and safety production measures led to production cuts in some regions, which, combined with low coal prices, improved market sentiment and prices began to rebound [2] Group 3 - In the first five months of the year, domestic coking coal production maintained a rapid growth rate, with a cumulative production increase of approximately 9.72 million tons, a 4.5% year-on-year rise [2][3] - Despite production cuts in May and June, the overall situation of oversupply and loose supply in the coal industry remained unchanged [3] - The majority of coal mines are still profitable, which is a key reason for their reluctance to cut production [3] Group 4 - The current coal industry policy focuses on stable production and supply to ensure energy security, with plans to implement a coal capacity reserve system by 2025 [3][4] - The approach to managing excess capacity has shifted from aggressive elimination to a more regulated exit of outdated capacity [4] Group 5 - Coking coal imports have decreased, alleviating supply pressure, with May imports down 17% month-on-month and 23% year-on-year [5][6] - The decline in Mongolian coal imports is attributed to the overall drop in domestic coal prices, reducing the cost-effectiveness of imported coal [6] Group 6 - Coking coal prices are at relatively low levels, with recent inventory levels at coking plants increasing slightly due to accelerated procurement [7] - Although there is a short-term inventory reduction, overall inventory levels remain high compared to previous years [7] - The production cuts driven by environmental and safety factors are not expected to be sustainable, and coal production is likely to remain high [7]