Core Viewpoint - Company is positioned as a leading gold enterprise in China with strong growth momentum, projecting EPS of 0.92 CNY and 1.10 CNY for 2025 and 2026 respectively, indicating a CAGR of 62% [1] Group 1: Growth Potential - The company holds a 70% stake in the Haiyu Gold Mine, expected to produce 15-20 tons of gold annually upon reaching full capacity, with an estimated annual production attributable to the company of 10.5-14 tons, potentially becoming one of the largest operating gold mines in China [2] - The average unit cost of ore extraction is projected to be 340 CNY/ton, with early mining of high-grade ore (approximately 6 g/ton) expected to yield better profits [2] Group 2: International Expansion - The company successfully privatized Tietto Minerals in June 2024 and completed the acquisition of West African Gold, marking the beginning of its international expansion [3] - Tietto holds 88% of the Abujar open-pit gold project in Côte d'Ivoire, with an expected average annual gold production of 5.28 tons over the next nine years, indicating strong profitability potential [3] - West African Gold has the Komahoun Gold Mine, with an annual production capacity of up to 1.77 tons, supporting the company's strategy to achieve a "dual H" development model with equal domestic and international operations [3] Group 3: Management and Governance - Zijin Mining became the second-largest shareholder of the company in 2022, holding 44% of the Haiyu Gold Mine, facilitating collaboration in five key areas: system mechanisms, investment development, technological innovation, talent cultivation, and industrial development [4] - The management team underwent a reshuffle in 2023, leading to significant improvements in governance, with a continuous decline in expense ratios since 2022, enhancing internal and external growth and profitability [4] Group 4: Market Trends - The onset of interest rate cuts is expected to create upward pressure on gold prices, with actual interest rates declining, thus providing space for gold price increases [5] - The trend of de-dollarization is anticipated to continue, with increasing demand for gold purchases, particularly from emerging countries, as global central banks maintain strong gold buying momentum [5] Group 5: Long-term Growth Outlook - The company is expected to achieve sustainable growth over the next three to five years through internal and external expansion, with a focus on converting quality resource layouts into capacity expansion and long-term performance support [6] Group 6: Catalysts - Potential catalysts for growth include rising gold prices and progress in company projects and capacity expansion exceeding expectations [7]
中金：予招金矿业(01818)目标价27港元 评级“跑赢行业”