“大而美”法案搅动全球能源格局

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed by President Trump significantly alters U.S. energy policy, potentially disrupting the global energy structure and hindering the transition to renewable energy sources [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Renewable Energy - The bill repeals several tax incentives for clean energy projects, particularly affecting wind and solar energy, which could severely hinder the renewable energy industry [1][2]. - Energy Innovation reports that over 80% of new electricity capacity in the U.S. last year came from solar and battery projects, primarily in "red states" like Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas [1]. - The U.S. solar industry warns of nearly 300,000 job losses due to the premature termination of green subsidies, with the industry facing an increased burden of $4 billion to $7 billion [2][3]. Group 2: Changes in Tax Incentives - New regulations require clean energy projects to be operational by 2027 or start construction within 12 months of the bill's enactment to qualify for remaining tax credits [2]. - The bill extends the tax credit for hydrogen projects by two years, allowing projects to qualify if they start by January 1, 2028, which is a positive development for the hydrogen sector [3]. Group 3: Fossil Fuel Industry Benefits - The bill retains provisions favorable to fossil fuel companies, including billions in subsidies and new lease auctions for oil and gas in federal waters, which has been positively received by the oil and gas industry [3][4]. - The reintroduction of lower royalty rates for new oil and gas lease auctions is seen as a significant boost for the U.S. oil and gas sector [4]. Group 4: Global Energy Market Implications - The U.S. is currently in a state of oversupply in the global oil and gas market, and excessive production could lead to a decline in global oil prices, which may not align with U.S. interests [4]. - The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill is expected to initiate a transformation period in the global energy industry, creating challenges and opportunities for foreign renewable energy companies [4].