Price and Basis - Absolute prices have significantly increased, while the basis has weakened, with futures outperforming spot prices. The current spot price for rebar in East China is 3100 yuan, with futures at a premium of 33 yuan per ton; hot-rolled coil spot price is 3310 yuan, with futures at a discount of 37 yuan per ton. The 10-1 month price spread has weakened, with rebar at -28 yuan and hot-rolled coil at -7 yuan [1] - Recent market sentiment improvement has led to price increases, boosting spot market sentiment and increasing trade volume. Futures traders are primarily engaging in arbitrage and establishing long positions [1] Supply and Demand - July production continues to decline, with an overall decrease of 90,000 tons from the May peak, including a reduction of 50,000 tons in molten iron and a decrease of 40,000 tons in scrap steel consumption. Current molten iron production is 2.398 million tons, with scrap steel consumption stable at 505,000 tons. The total production of the five major materials has decreased by 124,400 tons to 8.72 million tons; rebar production is down by 40,000 tons to 2.167 million tons, and hot-rolled coil production has decreased by 50,000 tons to 3.232 million tons [2] - Demand for the five major materials remains stable at high levels, with a decrease in demand of 12,200 tons to 8.73 million tons in the current period. The production and demand gap has narrowed in June and July, with hot-rolled coil production exceeding demand, while rebar production is slightly below demand [2] Inventory - Recent production has fluctuated with demand, leading to inventory trends that are less than expected for the off-season. Current inventory of the five major materials has decreased by 3,500 tons to 13.4 million tons, with rebar inventory down by 50,000 tons to 5.4 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory has increased by 6,000 tons to 3.457 million tons. The supply and demand for rebar have both decreased, maintaining a downward inventory trend, while hot-rolled coil has seen a slight increase in inventory [2] Market Sentiment and Strategy - Steel price fluctuations have intensified, with significant increases in rebar and hot-rolled coil prices, and a weakening basis. The recent stabilization of black metal prices began in June due to environmental inspections leading to reduced coking coal production. Improved market sentiment has driven a broad increase in commodity prices, with expectations from the "urban renewal" work meeting stimulating domestic demand [3] - The current market conditions suggest that while there is a low inventory and improved market sentiment supporting valuation recovery, actual demand elasticity remains limited. The next macro observation window is the political bureau meeting at the end of July. Current price levels for rebar and hot-rolled coil are being monitored for potential breakout points at 3100 yuan and 3300 yuan, respectively, with resistance levels at 3220 yuan and 3350 yuan [3]
钢材期货行情展望：供需矛盾不大 市场情绪好转影响价格上涨
Jin Tou Wang·2025-07-14 02:13