【环球问策—链博系列】赛迪专家张业佳：趋势未变，产业界需要理性面对新能源汽车“过渡时间”

Core Viewpoint - The development of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry in China is experiencing fluctuations due to technological upgrades and changes in overseas market demand, but the long-term trend towards electrification remains unchanged [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The upcoming China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo (Chain Expo) is expected to be a significant platform for promoting the development of the NEV supply chain, attracting over 650 companies from 75 countries, with more than 65% being global top 500 companies [1]. - The NEV market is influenced by short-term factors such as the temporary recovery of fuel vehicles in some regions of Europe and the U.S., driven by policy adjustments and energy price fluctuations [2][3]. - Emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa are identified as new growth engines for the NEV sector, with low penetration rates and improving infrastructure [3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - China's NEV supply chain plays a dual role as a "stabilizer" and "accelerator," ensuring stable growth trends through domestic production and innovation [3][4]. - The supply chain includes upstream resource allocation for materials like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, and midstream production of key components such as batteries and electric drive systems, with major players like CATL and BYD leading the market [4]. - The supply chain's high responsiveness and flexible manufacturing capabilities allow it to adapt quickly to evolving demands for range, safety, and intelligence in vehicles [4]. Group 3: Future Development and Challenges - The NEV industry needs to shift from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement," focusing on sustainable growth through policy guidance and market mechanisms [5]. - The transition to solid-state batteries is anticipated to revolutionize the industry, with significant advantages in energy density, safety, and charging speed, although mass production is not expected until 2028 [6][7]. - Companies are encouraged to optimize existing liquid battery technologies while preparing for solid-state battery development, balancing short-term competitiveness with long-term technological reserves [7].