日本参议院选举可能改变政坛格局，进一步阻碍日本央行加息

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election on July 20 is expected to shift the political landscape, potentially hindering the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates due to increased influence from opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and loose monetary policy [1] Political Landscape - Polls indicate that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition may lose its majority in the Senate, which could lead to a political deadlock as the ruling coalition is already a minority in the more powerful House of Representatives [1] - This deadlock may empower opposition parties, giving them greater influence in decision-making processes [1] Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that if opposition groups pressure the Bank of Japan to avoid interest rate hikes and call for a reduction in consumption tax, this could lead to an increase in government bond yields [1] - The efforts of the Bank of Japan to normalize monetary policy may become more challenging as a result of these political dynamics [1] Expert Opinion - Daiju Aoki, Chief Japan Economist at UBS SuMi Trust Wealth Management, estimates a 50% chance that the ruling coalition will lose its Senate majority, which could intensify discussions about lowering Japan's consumption tax rate and raise concerns about the country's fiscal situation, potentially driving up long-term interest rates [1]