【债市观察】股市、商品联袂走强 债市逆风因素增加

Core Viewpoint - The recent "stock-bond seesaw" effect has led to the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, while bond market yields have generally risen, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] Market Overview - During the week of July 7 to July 11, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield increased by 2.2 basis points to 1.665% [1][2] - The yield curve has shown a tendency towards a bear flattening, with short-term yields rising more significantly than long-term yields [1] - The bond market experienced a net withdrawal of funds due to the central bank's operations, with a focus on upcoming government debt payments and tax periods [1] Bond Market Activity - A total of 70 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 690 billion yuan, including 4 government bonds worth 293.21 billion yuan [6] - The upcoming week (July 14 to July 18) is expected to see the issuance of 69 bonds totaling 500.18 billion yuan, with local government bonds making up a significant portion [6] Yield Changes - The yield changes for various maturities from July 4 to July 11, 2025, include: - 1-year: +3.4 BP - 2-year: +4.61 BP - 3-year: +3.67 BP - 5-year: +3.63 BP - 10-year: +2.2 BP [2][3] International Market Influence - In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.41%, reflecting investor concerns over inflation and supply pressures [7] - The recent tariff announcements by the U.S. government have reignited inflation expectations, which may impact global bond markets [9][10] Institutional Perspectives - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that the current commodity price increases are primarily driven by liquidity, with supply factors still in the early stages of recovery [16] - Citing the potential for a smoother issuance of local government bonds compared to last year, the firm anticipates that the central bank will continue to support the bond market in the short term [16] - Industrial Securities maintains a bullish outlook on the bond market but acknowledges the need for patience due to increased market volatility and external disturbances [16]