“大而美”法案冲击应对策

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed by President Trump on July 4 includes key elements such as tax cuts, immigration policy, healthcare reform, defense spending, and adjustments to green energy [2][4] - The bill represents a significant political victory for Trump in his second term and indicates profound changes in U.S. economic and social policy [2][4] - The legislation aims to weaken the Senate's checks and balances through procedural breakthroughs, pushing for global financial regulatory upgrades and promoting local currency settlements among BRICS nations to address structural challenges posed by U.S. policies [2][4] Group 2 - The bill continues the "America First" ideology, restructuring tax, welfare, and energy policies to reshape the U.S. social structure through a redistribution mechanism that benefits the top 1% while transferring fiscal pressure to state and local governments [4][8] - The tax policy aspect of the bill makes the corporate tax rate reduction from 35% to 21% permanent, with a projected increase in the deficit of $3.4 trillion over ten years, rising to $4.1 trillion with interest [4][8] - The welfare system adjustments include a significant cut to Medicaid funding exceeding $900 billion from 2025 to 2034 and the introduction of a "work for welfare" requirement, potentially affecting over 10 million low-income individuals [4][8] Group 3 - The energy policy shift undermines the Biden administration's climate agenda by gradually eliminating clean energy tax credits, leading to a potential reduction in electric vehicle sales by 40% by 2030 [5][11] - The bill's passage through the budget reconciliation process allowed Republicans to bypass traditional legislative hurdles, raising concerns about the erosion of bipartisan cooperation and the integrity of U.S. democracy [5][11] - The legislation is expected to exacerbate social divides, with the top 10% of income earners projected to receive an additional $3.1 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade, while the bottom 10% may face increased tax burdens [8][10] Group 4 - The bill is anticipated to increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion and raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, leading to potential long-term economic risks such as higher interest rates and inflation [10] - The U.S. dollar's dominance is facing systemic challenges, with a notable increase in the 30-year Treasury yield and a decline in the dollar index, prompting countries like Saudi Arabia and Brazil to initiate local currency trade settlements [10][11] - The manufacturing sector may see a mixed impact, with high-value industries like semiconductors benefiting from tax incentives, while low-value sectors struggle due to high operational costs in the U.S. [11]